Fictional exercises and conditional reference results. No live engine or calibrated forecast.
EXECUTION, IN CONTEXT
Read the dependencies.
Not just the date.
Explore what has to come together for accepted nuclear output. Start with a simple exercise, then examine the conditional reference results.
ALVA · Two-unit uprate reference
REFERENCE v0.1A hypothetical site with two PWR units. The modeled endpoint is both units accepted for incremental output, not the first unit or the start of an outage.
One site. Both units.
600 net MWe is an analyst assumption.FICTIONAL DEPENDENCY EXERCISE
What is still missing?
See what holds the handoff—the point where all required inputs come together.
Explore which prerequisite holds the handoff. Load a preset, then change individual checkboxes. Checked means assumed available in this exercise.
No delay duration is calculated here.
Follow these steps to watch demo
- Load a preset
Choose a preset below. It loads the starting selection for all five checkboxes.
- Toggle prerequisites
Check or uncheck an item. Checked means assumed available—not verified.
- Read the result
See which missing inputs hold the handoff. Every prerequisite is required.
Open the separate preserved view. Demo selections do not change its outputs.
How this works
Presets load a starting configuration. Each preset sets all five checkboxes. Pressing “Missing equipment” again reloads that configuration; it does not turn the preset off. Use a checkbox to change one prerequisite.
Every prerequisite is required. The handoff, also called a “join,” is where all required inputs come together. A selected item cannot substitute for a missing one. If two items are missing, selecting just one still leaves the handoff held by the other.
Five binary controls allow 32 possible checkbox configurations—not 32 simulations or real-world project states. Reference results come from separate preserved runs. Toggling these boxes does not rerun them or calculate real delay.
Select Equipment to clear this block, then uncheck Qualified workforce to see a different hold.
A qualified crew cannot install equipment that is not available. For a two-unit uprate, engineering, equipment, execution and outage interfaces have to come together.
All checkbox states are fictional. They do not describe any of the companies shown, and they do not change the reference snapshots or schedule screens.
SELECTED SNAPSHOT · REFERENCE v0.1
Conditional acceptance ranges
Years from hypothetical development authorization; both units accepted for incremental output.
Compare fixed results, not live inputs. Select a chart row to inspect it, or use Compare scenarios to keep up to three side by side. Neither control changes assumptions or reruns the model; demo checkboxes do not affect these results.
How this works · P50, P80 and P90
A conditional P50 is the modeled acceptance endpoint at or before which 50% of the hypothetical trials finish; P80 and P90 use 80% and 90%. They depend on the selected assumptions and on eventual completion.
These are conditional percentiles—not confidence levels, calibrated forecasts, probabilities of a company meeting its target or guarantees. Paired trials share underlying conditions across cases. A difference between endpoint percentiles is not a percentile of paired trial savings.
Choose a row to inspect its values and compare the four cases visually in the chart and table. These outputs were generated in separate preserved runs; no simulation executes here.
Hypothetical model output, not an ALVA or utility forecast. 30,000 paired trials per case.
Bars connect P50 to P90; the interior mark is P80. These are endpoint ranges, not probability curves, confidence intervals or the full range of outcomes. Select a row to inspect it.
SIDE-BY-SIDE · SAME PROJECT CONTEXT
Compare scenarios
Check up to three scenarios to keep their fixed results on screen. Uncheck one to make room for another.
3 of 3 selected. Uncheck one to compare another.
No scenarios selected. Check a scenario above to display its preserved P50, P80 and P90 values.
Swipe table to see all selected scenarios.
Fixed preserved outputs only—not a live rerun or a comparison between companies. Chart highlighting is independent of these selections.
View all four reference scenarios
Swipe table to see all percentiles.
| Hypothetical case | P50 | P80 | P90 |
|---|
ASSUMPTION UNCERTAINTY
A different prior set can matter more than an intervention.
These unweighted baseline sensitivity snapshots change assumptions across workstreams. They are not alternative forecasts or weighted scenarios.
- Faster priors
- P50 Nov 2033P90 Sep 2034
- Slower priors
- P50 Jan 2036P90 Aug 2037
Numerical provenance: Install Margin | WIMS Macro Reference Model v0.1, selected snapshot dated 13 September 2026. Public evidence below informs the context; it does not calibrate these values.
Implementation QA passed, not empirical validation. An alternate-seed check is not a formal convergence guarantee.
COMMON SCENARIO · EVIDENCE REVIEW
Same scope. Separate evidence.
One illustrative US two-unit PWR scenario for both OEM contexts. This is not a comparison of supplier performance.
Review the evidence status, then choose a cycle progression. The cards separate scope questions from sourced findings. Cycle controls select frozen schedule-screen outputs, not live model inputs.
How this works
Start with the five workstream cards and their public sources. A pending evidence status is not a conclusion about an OEM’s capability. The common scenario is held equal; it is not a supplier-performance ranking.
The cycle-progression buttons select an illustrative pattern applied to both units: stay at 18 months, transition from 18 to 24 months, or start at 24 months. They do not assign a different cycle length to each unit. Each selection displays only its reviewed, frozen schedule-screen output. “Output under review” means no output has been supplied here—not that the OEM cannot deliver.
No probabilities, confidence levels, real delay estimates or protected model calculations are produced by these controls. The separate checkbox exercise does not alter the evidence or schedule-screen snapshots.
The scope is held common: reactor coolant pump disposition, steam generators, 24-month fuel engineering and the existing turbine centerline. The additional ALVA balance-of-plant path is kept separate.
Five workstreams to substantiate
EVIDENCE REVIEW PENDINGILLUSTRATIVE OUTAGE COORDINATION
Change the cycle progression.
Choose the illustrative cycle progression applied to both units—not a Unit 1 / Unit 2 cycle-length pairing. These controls select a preserved schedule-screen output; they do not run a model or establish an actual outage plan.
Evidence and schedule-screen outputs are awaiting review. No OEM-specific performance claims or numerical outputs are supplied in this framework.
Source statements, analyst scope choices and deterministic screen outputs remain distinct. Release review is not model validation or company endorsement.
RELATED SYNTHETIC BRIEFING
Inside the outage window.
A separate synthetic demo shows how a deterministic schedule checker, such as the PRISM method described in a public 2019 DOE report, could supply outage-readiness evidence to WIMS for reactor coolant pump replacement, steam generator replacement and existing turbine centerline work. Fictional unit and data. No PRA output, calibrated forecast or partnership is implied.
BOUNDARIES BEFORE CONCLUSIONS
What this does not establish.
Implementation is not validation.
Reference results and schedule screens use analyst-selected assumptions. Numerical checks can establish that code implements a specification; they cannot establish that the specification describes a real project.
Fermi v0.2: main-agent reconstruction passed. Separate independent review is incomplete.
ALVA reference boundaries
These are selected preserved reference results and evidence-review contexts, not the full public engine. The five-checkbox exercise does not reproduce any model. No investment, procurement, licensing or schedule commitment should be based on this explorer.
PUBLIC EVIDENCE
Trace the context. Keep the distinctions.
Sources establish public statements and regulatory context—not numerical inputs, intervention benefits or model accuracy. No company endorsement is implied.
THE WIMS ORGANIZING LENS
Twelve dimensions.
No invented scores.
These canonical labels organize questions about execution. They are not a scored assessment and are not all fully modeled in either reference.
The teaching prompts below explain the lens; they do not assert project conditions or model coverage.
You don’t fight the hill.
You change the gearing.